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January 2023 - Bank of Canada Rate Announcement

January 2023 - Bank of Canada Rate Announcement

The target for the overnight rate increased to 4.5%, with the Bank Rate at 4.75% and the deposit rate at 4.5%. Quantitative tightening will continue. Inflation remains high and broadly based globally, but is trending down in several countries, reflecting lower energy prices and improvements to supply chains. 

In the US and Europe, slowing economies are proving to be more resilient than at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s lifting of COVID-19 restrictions revised the growth forecast and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine is still a source of uncertainty and financial conditions remain restrictive. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.

It’s estimated that the global economy grew about 3.5% in 2022, but will slow to about 2% in 2023 and then grow to 2.5% in 2024. Economic growth in Canada is stronger and the economy remains in excess demand. The labour market is tight as the unemployment rate is near historic lows. Businesses, however, are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. There’s evidence that the restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Services and business investments are expected too slow in addition to weaker foreign demand helping to allow supply to catch up with demand.

It’s estimated that Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022 but is expected to stall through to the middle of 2023, and then picking up again later in the year. GDP is expected to grow 1% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and durable goods.

Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation is expected to remain elevated but inflation is projected to come down significantly this year.

Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Reach out with your questions in regards to how this impacts your home buying or selling decision.

Craig Finnman ⁠

Re/Max Elite ⁠ ⁠

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